Looking towards the future of world urban development, cities of the global south will: urp30001/3/2024 ![]() ![]() ![]() The simulation based on a single scenario could hinder the applications in climate and environmental change studies. However, some models only provide a single scenario based on the historical trajectory in the simulation of future global urban growth 12. The universal climate scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have also been used to simulate future changes in global and regional land covers, including an urban land category 9, 10, 11. For instance, a 2030 global urban land map has been developed based on global population and economy predictions made by the United Nations 8. Projections of urban land patterns require established scenarios that represent possible future socio-economic and environmental conditions. The open-access dataset of these projections is available via OR. ![]() Here, we present spatially explicit projections of global urban land expansion from 2015 to 2100 and discuss its impacts. Therefore, a proper understanding of how future urban land change will affect other land covers is important to alleviate the social and environmental problems that challenge the sustainable developments of human societies. Urban expansion has resulted in more than 80% of natural habitat loss in local areas 7. Urban areas contribute to 70% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions 6. Urban land is expanding even faster than urban population 2, exerting a profound impact on biodiversity conservation and the water, carbon, aerosol and nitrogen cycles in the climate system at the local and global scales 3, 4, 5. Urban land covers only a small proportion of the global terrestrial surface but is home to more than half of the world’s population 1. ![]()
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